I like Donald Trump as POTUS, and I despise Joe Biden. I think that sums up 51% of American voters at this time. The Biden administration is like the stench of an outhouse used by smokers with diarrhea in July.
But I guarantee that Trump is going to stink a bit too - he just isn't on the throne yet. There is campaign Trump and POTUS Trump. I'm not saying Trump is phony like Obama & Biden, because he is not, but I am saying that we need to begin to steel ourselves for reality.
Trump has assembled the best team I've seen since I started voting (Jimmy Carter over Gerald Ford). They are talented but naive. Or perhaps we are naive - still giddy from the victory.
The "swamp" is still in place. The swamp didn't dry up because Trump won, in fact the swamp is more powerful than ever in part because of demented Biden's "fuck you America" actions in his final months. What a shit stain in America's undies..
My prediction is pretty simple, not scientific, based on my gut and is two time intervals - 4 and 20 years. Trump has about a 20% chance of affecting major change in the function of the US government in 4 years. That number increases to 50% at 20 years.
The fight with the swamp will be terrible and will likely destroy much of Trump's team. Senate Republicans, (50% of the swamp), are not going to quietly give up Pharma and Defense industry money, nor will they forgo reelection by fighting the various Federal employee unions. It is not evident to me that Trump has someone on his staff capable of coordinating the attack on the swamp. A frontal attack is suicidal.
However, there are some vulnerable Federal agencies that can be whacked or shuffled. They make up the 20%. Since 80% of an agency's budget is payroll, ( and harder than hell to layoff Federal employees), it is very unlikely that Trump can realize the $2 trillion reduction identified by DOGE. But maybe they will claw back some savings. At least a couple hundred pages of regulations will die.
At the end of 4 years Trump will be spent, Musk will have ships on Mars, Vivek will be helping his children with high school homework, and Tulsi's hair will be snow white. They will have attempted much, accomplished little, but changed the course of the very large ship America.
The course change will slowly set a new direction for America over the next 20 years. There are a number of "Trumps" waiting in the wings of the Republican party. The Democrats have yet to figure out how to get back to center, so I think they will struggle for another election cycle. And when they purge the Democrat party of the leftist loons, their new found centrism will continue the course set by MAGA - perhaps improving.
4 years bloody and bruised. 20 years a revived world leadership. Sober up folks.