Messaging: Remember "low information voters"?

"Low information voters" entered our language in the run up to the 1996 Presidential election between incumbent Bill Clinton and challenger Senator Bob Dole. The media ran interviews of regular people, the most famous was a soccer mom who supported Bill Clinton saying "I don't trust him, but I think he's the better man for the job". Hence, "The soccer mom vote".

Assuming 2026 US population of 342 million:

• ~54 million people have an IQ of 85 or less
• ~233 million 85-115
• ~54 million with an IQ of 115 and above

According to Wikipedia, the US military will not accept or induct anyone below 83 IQ as they cannot be trained to successfully perform any job in the military.

The only requirements to vote are US citizenship and non-felon status.

All I know about the voting population is that ~160 million voted in 2024's Presidential election.

I spewed all that intro as groundwork for the idea that campaign messaging needs to cover 3 IQ ranges.

Another idea is that the groups each have strengths and weaknesses:

• The 85 or less group will not respond to abstract concepts and will not understand academic language, but will respond strongly to verbal and visual appeals to justice and fairness regardless of truthfulness.
• The 85-115 group can  handle most abstract and advanced language, is suspicious of emotionalism but not likely to be knowledgeable of major issues.
• The 115+ group ignores appeals to emotionalism and switches off any dubious claims. Will not pay attention to logically unsupported positions.

A better year overall

 Elon Musk showed us how the grift works at the Federal level. Gavin Newsom and Tim Waltz showed us how the grift works at the State level. Jessica Tarlov of "The Five" showed how libtards can think around the obvious fraud and obfuscate and diffuse the focus so as to protect the Democrats.

I'm still very thankful that Trump is in the Whitehouse - I can't imagine either a moron like Harris or a corpse like Biden after nearly a year of Trump. The stench of the Shit-stain administration is almost gone.

I'm happy that Trump has taken a very hard line with drug cartels. There is much more he can do since Mexico is cartel controlled. There has to be some nervous cartel leaders.

The SCOTUS is defining Executive branch boundaries and Trump is winning 80% of the judgements. And America can see just how screwed up the Judiciary is when Judges suffering from TDS won't stay in their lane.

I'm confident that Trump can create the appearance of improved affordability in the minds of the really, really stupid people who just recently realized that the price increases from the inflation from the Shit-stain years, aren't going away. Stupid people are part of our society, but I think Trump can handle them.

I'm certain that China is going to take Taiwan and it might cause a recession. But I am confident in the US leadership.

Are there problems? Yep, but I'm happy and hopeful for the future.

The ACA (Abomination Crime Act) - needs those subsidies

 Ok, I hate doing a cut&paste from Grok, but it beats retyping headline news:

"However, the estimated total scale of the "ACA scam"—encompassing improper enrollments, identity fraud, and unverified subsidies—is $27 billion annually, based on analyses by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and independent groups like the Paragon Health Institute."

Now my focus here is on the extension of the Covid-era subsidies that Senator Schumer is using as a weapon against Trump. 

Remember, Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, shut down the Federal government for 44 days to force Trump to extend ACA subsidies.

Thankfully, because of DOGE, we have already seen the rampant fraud committed by what I'll call the real "Deep State" - over 5000 fraudulent Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) fed by now defunct USAID alone.  At one point Elon Musk put the true number of parasite fraudster NGOs at around 50,000.

The investigation by the GAO and CBO parallels work by DOGE, once again showing how a fake Social Security number is used to open up a fountain of unaccounted Government spending. Evidently this is what Chucky and the Senate Democrats want to protect.

Next year starts the race to midterm elections. I hope Trumps smears the dog shit of corruption on the heads of every politician he can find with their hand in the proverbial cookie jar. Starting with Chucky.

Gonna be fun.

Picking on Grok - is AI ready?

 Here us question posed to Grok 4.1:

"How did Charlie Kirk's assassination happen?"

This is what you get when Grok gives a fast answer (~15sec):

"Kirk was delivering the opening speech of his Fall 2025 "American Comeback Tour," addressing a crowd of several hundred students and supporters on campus grounds near the UVU Events Center. At approximately 7:45 p.m. local time, as Kirk discussed conservative values and the upcoming midterm elections, he was struck by a single sniper round to the head from about 130 meters away. The shot originated from a wooded area adjacent to the campus, where the gunman had positioned himself. Kirk collapsed onstage and was pronounced dead at the scene despite immediate medical intervention. The event was livestreamed, and graphic videos of the shooting spread rapidly on social media within minutes, amplifying public shock."

This is what get if you tell Grok to think harder (1m 14s):

"At approximately 12:23 p.m. MDT, Kirk was addressing a crowd and engaging with an audience member on the topic of mass shootings in the United States when he was struck by a single sniper bullet to the neck.

en.wikipedia.org

 The shot came from the roof of the nearby Losee Center, about 130 meters away, using a .30-06 Mauser M 98 bolt-action rifle.

en.wikipedia.org

 Kirk was rushed to Timpanogos Regional Hospital where he was pronounced dead shortly after.

en.wikipedia.org

 The event was being livestreamed, and graphic footage of the shooting quickly circulated online, showing the immediate chaos as attendees fled and security responded.

facebook.com

 No other individuals were injured in the attack."

OK, as they often say in the series "Reacher" - details matter. Your average person might not want to wait for a more accurate answer

If they accepted Grok's fast answer, they would be misinformed on:

What Charlie was doing at the moment he was shot.

Where Charlie was shot.

Where the shot originated.

When and where Charlie was pronounced dead.

And regardless of Grok's effort,  the ignorant media bias of "sniper" is promulgated.

(The shooter was no sniper).

AI still needs a warning label "DANGER: this product is known by intelligent people everywhere to spew garbage occasionally. The user is encouraged not to accept output without some rudimentary fact checking"

The Rotting Corpse of the ACA

 I'm not a fan of the 40+ day Government shutdown, but one positive is shining some light on the ACA.

I blogged about Healthcare Reform in September 2009. At the time, what was to become "Obama's signature achievement" was being bounced around in the halls of Congress and our media was doing it's best to keep us in the dark. Few folks could understand the basic underlying principle, and nobody except the Architect (Johnathan Gruber) knew the details - not even Obama.

Gruber sold the bill to the public by the mushroom farming approach (keep them in the dark and feed them shit). He kept Congress partitioned into special interests, and he gave Obama plausible deniability by not filling him in on the details. In the end, we latched onto a quote from Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi -  "We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it", and Obama's "if you like your health care plan, you'll be able to keep your health care plan". Regardless the obvious deception, the ACA became law in 2010 with full implementation delayed until 2014.

I used the Health Marketplace as an individual (not part of an employer plan) from 2014 to 2023. And has been repeatedly reported by others, premiums skyrocketed and coverage declined (rising deductibles). People whose employer managed the benefit were somewhat oblivious, depending on how much the employer subsidized.

Note: The ACA was nearly repealed in 2017 after passing the House but failing in the Senate by one vote - cancer brain McCain.

Ok, enough with history - I think everyone gets the irony of "AFFORDABLE Care Act".

The ACA was written by insurers and  providers, and reflects these group's financial interests. As is oft the case with making "the way we've always done it" law, i.e. set in stone, there is no way to curtail the rising costs of medical care - hence ever increasing premiums, or in the shit-stain era (Biden), taxpayer subsidies.

There are some interesting opportunities to effect intelligent change in the US healthcare, but any serious change is predicated on Congressional willingness to creamating the rotting corpse of the ACA.

Covid opened the kimono of the Federal Governments existing systems (NIH, CDC, FDA) so the public could see just how pathetic they are. It also, (hopefully), educated the public to realize that healthcare in America is not one giant monolith, but rather a very loosely connected network of ~7000 hospitals that seem more focused on protecting themselves from malpractice suits, than practicing effective medicine. (I remember trying to rank hospitals on their covid care and discovered they siloed that information out of reach of mere humans like myself).

So change is needed, some change is easily within reach (structural), change due to AI is probably 5 years out (assuming Congress removes impediments).

I would love for a healthcare overhaul to be Trump's signature achievement. I wonder if Elon has some extra time...

When the AI "Future" is Wrong

 The future is one area where a betting man can make some money wagering that the influencers will be wrong - of course nobody's going to take that bet.

I was listening to Joe Rogan interview Elon Musk. Elon was hesitant to make prognostications about how AI and Robotics will ultimately shape human existence - smart man.

Joe however, plowed ahead and made a couple classic boo-boos concerning the AI-impacted future. IMHO Joe's mistakes are:

(1) The future is zero sum, i.e.  Heaven on earth when we solve all of today's problems.

(2) Human nature will be modified by the change in external environment. The Star Trek Next Generation syndrome.

Number 1 has no long-term historical basis. Just imagine trying to explain to Ben Franklin all the issues of life in 2025. Poor old Ben's head would be hurting as there is no possible way wise old Ben could've anticipated the changes. 

Number 1 is suspect even for a 30 year window - think back to 1995 and try to embrace the scope of the changes that have taken place because of cheap computing and global connectivity.

Number 2 immediately makes me think of a failure of Marxism - thinking that people's innate drives can be "fixed" by a change in their environment. Only in Hollywood does that work.

AI and cheap Robotics will certainly have a huge impact, but there always seems to be a need for more. 

There will be new problems, new challenges. Guaranteed.

Why Conservatives can be very wrong

For the record, I am Conservative.

It has been very easy for me to go through life oblivious to Government at all levels. One reason is that I obey the law, gainfully employed, raised a family, married to one woman, and follow Jesus. Another reason is that the machinations of Government have little impact on my everyday life. Consider the following:

The Federal Government spending = $7 T

The US GDP for 2025  = $28 T

The US Stock Market = $53 T.

So between Federal spending and Stock Market activity, which has more impact on the overall economic activity (GDP) and by extension, my life?

Now for the depressing stuff. 

I joke sometimes about people in positions of leadership who "solidly occupy the left-side of the IQ distribution curve". But, scraping away my lame attempt at humor reveals that there are about 40 million Americans trying to make a go of it with an IQ of 85 or less.

According Dr. Jordan Peterson, (and Wikipedia), the US military will not draft someone with an IQ below 83, as they cannot be trained for and be successful in any role in the military.

For much of my life I considered myself a "winner" because I was smart. Slowly my hubris faded as I realized my success was by God's Providence. Now as an old man I feel compassion for low-IQ people and concern that Conservatives are guilty of ignoring the very real plight of millions of Americans.

Of course there are shysters, like the BLM founders, the myriad of NGOs revealed by DOGE, etc. who game the system and manipulate low-IQ people. But that doesn't change the fact that low-IQ people exist and are trying to survive in an increasingly sophisticated world.

We Conservatives must shoulder the very real responsibility of our fellow man. This isn't something we can ignore while we daily check the progress of our investments.

Social media algorithms can flood our minds with the extremes of low-IQ people, causing us to be jaded, and numb. But ignoring the plight of millions of Americans is simply going to elect leftist shysters who are willing to use the simple-minded for political gain.

We Conservatives must do better.