The future is one area where a betting man can make some money wagering that the influencers will be wrong - of course nobody's going to take that bet.
I was listening to Joe Rogan interview Elon Musk. Elon was hesitant to make prognostications about how AI and Robotics will ultimately shape human existence - smart man.
Joe however, plowed ahead and made a couple classic boo-boos concerning the AI-impacted future. IMHO Joe's mistakes are:
(1) The future is zero sum, i.e. Heaven on earth when we solve all of today's problems.
(2) Human nature will be modified by the change in external environment. The Star Trek Next Generation syndrome.
Number 1 has no long-term historical basis. Just imagine trying to explain to Ben Franklin all the issues of life in 2025. Poor old Ben's head would be hurting as there is no possible way wise old Ben could've anticipated the changes.
Number 1 is suspect even for a 30 year window - think back to 1995 and try to embrace the scope of the changes that have taken place because of cheap computing and global connectivity.
Number 2 immediately makes me think of a failure of Marxism - thinking that people's innate drives can be "fixed" by a change in their environment. Only in Hollywood does that work.
AI and cheap Robotics will certainly have a huge impact, but there always seems to be a need for more.
There will be new problems, new challenges. Guaranteed.
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