Test kits, Trump and too many Doctors

The media is pushing the narative that people are dying because of a shortage of test kits. And the shortage is somehow Trump’s fault. But intelligent people know this is rubbish, that the real issue is how the testing was conducted.

Medical professionals have limited testing to those presenting a certain set of symptoms. And the test results have been closer to 95% negative - meaning the professionals suck at diagnosing covid19 by visible symptoms. What is worse is that we can't use the test results data to shape policy decisions as the data only measures the accuracy ofthe prescreening.

Fortunately, a couple of governors (Cumo and Newsom) ordered controlled random testing studies carried out in major population centers. Cumo shared some preliminary results showing that the morbidity (infection) rate is about 10X higher than the CDC and WHO reported, and the fatality rate is about 0.5% - not the 2.6% parroted by the media (flu runs about 0.2%). We will know much more when Newsom’s LA basin data comes in.

If we had economists, instead of Doctors, advising President Trump, we would have done the random testing much earlier and spared us the pain of the economic shutdown. Without intelligent data collection to counter the media craziness, people have been needlessly panicked.

I'll wrap up by stating that this incorrect reaction to covid19 was brought to you by medical professionals who can't appreciate the value of accurate data. And I can understand Trump not wanting to fund WHO (I'm sure he said "you're fired").

Our OODA loop and covid19

The following is a shameless cut & paste: "The OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) is a four-step approach to decision-making that focuses on filtering available information, putting it in context and quickly making the most appropriate decision while also understanding that changes can be made as more data becomes available. "

Mistake upon mistake.

First mistake was testing. The testing methodology was wrong - everybody except the mindless media realized it. The only thing we learn from the current testing is that medical professionals are wrong about 95% of the time.

The next mistake is ventilators. The treatment protocol kills 50% of the patients. They die isolated, unable to talk, separated from family and friends.

The next mistake falls squarely on the public who believe the medical system is one giant monolith, instead of a loosely connected system of privately owned profit & loss centers.

The biggest mistake is the current quarantine. We are killing our economy because a Doctor thinks it is "worth it". It is becoming clear that we should've quarantined the high-risk groups, and allowed everyone else to get on with life.

And now another mistake: trust in a cloth with openings 250,000,000 times too large to capture a covid19 virus.

The issue isn't that we made mistakes - mistakes are part of the normal process of dealing with a new threat. The real issue, as I see it, is the rate we recognize and react to our mistakes.

Today I read that Los Angeles is going to begin systematic random testing for covid19. This is starting about one month after smart people pointed out the flaws in the current test methodology used in most of America. It has taken a month for folks in charge to realize that the issue wasn't test kit availability, but rather that they were doing the testing incorrectly (people were being pre-screened for acceptable symptoms before testing. Thus the data gathered only told you how accurate the pre-screening was - and it wasn't very good). A month of properly random testing data would give us an accurate view of infection rate, fatality rate, etc. - databwe don't have because of a hodge-podge approach to testing.

I'm hoping the next mistake to be corrected is the current quarantine. It is clear that the pain of the looming recession/depression is greater than the loss of life. The better approach is to quarantine the high risk  groups and let everyone else get on with life.

Both of the above mistakes could've been prevented if an economist, not a doctor, was making policy decisions.

Like I said, mistakes are normal. But what need to improve is the rate at which we cycle through our national pandemic OODA loop.