Thursday, April 30, 2020

Test kits, Trump and too many Doctors

The media is pushing the narative that people are dying because of a shortage of test kits. And the shortage is somehow Trump’s fault. But intelligent people know this is rubbish, that the real issue is how the testing was conducted.
Medical professionals have limited testing to those presenting a certain set of symptoms. And the test results have been closer to 95% negative - meaning the professionals suck at diagnosing covid19 by visible symptoms. What is worse is that we can't use the test results data to shape policy decisions as the data only measures the accuracy ofthe prescreening.
Fortunately, a couple of governors (Cumo and Newsom) ordered controlled random testing studies carried out in major population centers. Cumo shared some preliminary results showing that the morbidity (infection) rate is about 10X higher than the CDC and WHO reported, and the fatality rate is about 0.5% - not the 2.6% parroted by the media (flu runs about 0.2%). We will know much more when Newsom’s LA basin data comes in.
If we had economists, instead of Doctors, advising President Trump, we would have done the random testing much earlier and spared us the pain of the economic shutdown. Without intelligent data collection to counter the media craziness, people have been needlessly panicked.
I'll wrap up by stating that this incorrect reaction to covid19 was brought to you by medical professionals who can't appreciate the value of accurate data. And I can understand Trump not wanting to fund WHO (I'm sure he said "you're fired").

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